Elections Set for August 30, 2026, in Haiti: A Democratic Beacon of Hope or Another Illusion?

The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) submitted the final version of the draft electoral decree and the electoral calendar to the executive branch last Friday, November 14. This document schedules the first round of presidential and legislative elections for August 30, 2026. Preliminary results are expected to be published on September 3, and final results on October 8. The second round, coupled with local elections, is set for December 6, with final results to be published on January 7, 2027. For some, this announcement constitutes a decisive step towards the return to constitutional order. For others, it is a risky gamble, or even a political illusion. A fundamental question thus arises: can one truly speak of elections in Haiti in the current situation? A Calendar That Brings a Glimmer of Hope… on Paper Despite its fragile nature, this electoral calendar possesses an undeniable merit: it reminds us that one does not make their bed when already overcome by sleep. It offers a perspective, a reason to believe that the current crisis is not irreversible. At least symbolically, it sets in motion a Republic that has been paralyzed for several years. A Security Reality Incompatible with Any Democratic Exercise The country's situation, however, remains extremely worrying. Armed gangs still control vast areas of the West, Center, and Artibonite departments. They impose their law on strategic road axes, paralyze activities at will based on simple messages (as was the case on Monday, November 17), and terrorize thousands of inhabitants of all generations. How can one speak of elections when voters cannot even move without risking their lives? How can one envision setting up polling stations where the State has completely lost its authority? The CEP Itself Recognizes Major Obstacles In submitting the electoral documents to the Transitional Presidential Council (CPT) and the head of government, the CEP emphasized that the execution of the calendar remains conditional on several prerequisites, including the timely publication of the electoral decree, a significant improvement in the security climate, and the mobilization of sufficient financial resources to carry out the process. An Election Date Is Not Enough In a fragmented country, where this is the first electoral initiative since 2015, setting a date was more than necessary. But believing that it is enough, without re-establishing real, lasting, and visible security, is blindness. Credible elections demand, above all, the re-establishment of free movement throughout the territory. No pre-electoral or electoral step is conceivable as long as the constitutional referendum has not been organized, hundreds of thousands of people live in fear, and entire portions of the country remain occupied by armed gangs. In a capital where entire neighborhoods escape state control, the idea of a national election currently appears unrealistic. An Institutional Framework in Question Other crucial questions persist. The CPT's mandate ends on February 7, 2026, in accordance with the April 3, 2024 agreement, which is more than six months before the scheduled first round. Who will then embody the necessary legitimacy to make strategic decisions related to the elections? Does the CEP, appointed by the CPT, truly possess the indispensable credibility? Should its reconstruction be considered on new foundations: national consensus, financial autonomy, strengthened technical skills, absolute transparency? Let us recall in this regard that Pierre Espérance, executive director of the National Network for the Defense of Human Rights (RNDDH), recently stated to a journalist that perhaps only two of the nine current CEP members enjoy a certain credibility. Haiti Deserves Real Elections, Not an Empty Ritual Any reliable election presupposes a minimum of security, freedom of movement, and trust in the electoral institution and the State. However, these conditions are largely absent today. Yes, Haiti needs an electoral calendar. Yes, it needs a date. But as long as the constitutional referendum has not taken place, as long as gangs continue to dictate their laws, as long as the State has not regained control of its territory, speaking of elections amounts to fabricating artificial optimism. Haiti does not deserve a democratic staging or another rendezvous with disappointment, but real elections. Pierre Josué Agénor Cadet